Bitcoin has demonstrated notable volatility over the past week, recently regaining the crucial $90,000 mark after briefly dipping below it. This rebound was prompted by increased market activity and aggressive purchasing from short-term investors. The rapid price movements were characterized by significant volatility and media-driven narratives, reflecting typical behaviors seen in late-market cycles.
While the price has stabilized at approximately $90,054, the overall market dynamics remain uncertain. Participants in the spot Bitcoin ETF market are largely inactive, which may influence the sustainability of this recent bounce. Observations from on-chain data reveal that realized losses are predominantly concentrated among holders who acquired their Bitcoin three to six months ago, with additional losses from those holding for six to twelve months. These investors likely purchased Bitcoin at higher price points, particularly above $110,000, and are now facing significant drawdowns as the market revisits their cost basis.
This trend of loss realization typically reflects a strategy of risk aversion rather than a shift toward bearish sentiment. As these holders tend to sell during price recoveries, they create resistance near critical recovery levels, which can hinder Bitcoin”s upward momentum.
Historically, spikes in realized losses within these timeframes have indicated later stages of market corrections rather than the onset of prolonged distribution patterns. In previous market cycles, Bitcoin often found stability and rallied after this group of holders completed their selling, suggesting the current market behavior might be nearing an exhaustion point rather than escalating further.
Monitoring momentum indicators, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has exhibited a sharp increase in the last 48 hours, indicating renewed buying interest. This uptick in the MFI correlates with a reduction in geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning developments related to Greenland. Bitcoin”s responsive nature to macroeconomic headlines illustrates the continued sensitivity of short-term traders to external events.
Despite Bitcoin”s recent uptick, ETF flows present a contrasting narrative. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have faced substantial outflows, totaling around $1.6 billion over three days, with Wednesday alone seeing the largest single-day outflow of $708 million since November 2025. This divergence between Bitcoin”s price rebound and ETF capital flows suggests that institutional investors remain cautious, holding off on reallocating risk until there is clearer macroeconomic stability.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has been navigating within a broadening ascending wedge pattern since mid-November 2025, a formation that typically indicates expanding volatility rather than a straightforward trend. The recent buying pressure helped Bitcoin avoid a complete breakdown to the lower boundary of this pattern. A confirmed breakout from this wedge could target long-term price objectives above $98,000, although this scenario appears ambitious at this stage.
In the short term, the focus lies on the $91,298 resistance level. A clear reclaim of this level could pave the way for a potential rise towards $93,471. However, the persistent outflows from ETFs may introduce significant challenges for Bitcoin”s price, potentially keeping it below key resistance levels and dragging it back under $90,000. Should such a scenario unfold, subsequent downside targets are identified at $87,210 or a retest of the wedge”s lower boundary. Until there is a definitive turnaround in ETF flows, Bitcoin is likely to remain within a volatile, range-bound environment, underscoring the need for patience among traders.
