Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline over the weekend, falling below $78,000, which is its lowest figure since April. This downturn comes as profit-taking coincides with diminishing liquidity and a lack of new buyers entering the market.
According to traders consulted by CoinDesk, a rally that was once supported by corporate interest—particularly from Strategy (MSTR) and its bitcoin acquisitions—has lost momentum, exposing the market to risks of forced selling and derivative liquidations.
Market analysts suggest that the drop on Saturday aligns with a larger bearish trend that has been developing over recent months. Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, has maintained since late October that Bitcoin is transitioning into a sideways-to-downward trajectory. He argues that the prevailing optimism around a resurgence to previous highs or a shift from metals back into crypto is merely “hopium” for bullish investors. “It”s been my view since the end of October that BTC is in a sideways and downside phase… I do not think 80K is a macro low for bitcoin,” Crown stated to CoinDesk, emphasizing that the current price action may be indicative of a more extensive corrective period.
The sentiment in the options market supports this bearish outlook, as traders increasingly wager on prices dipping below $75,000, abandoning previous bullish expectations of reaching $100,000. The dollar value of active bitcoin put options contracts at the $75,000 mark on the Deribit platform has reached $1.159 billion, nearing the notional open interest of $1.168 billion tied to the $100,000 call option.
Crown identifies several technical indicators that have historically signaled deeper corrections. Notably, the monthly MACD—a technical trading tool—crossed downward in November, a rare signal that has preceded prolonged downturns in past cycles. Additionally, the weekly 21 vs. 55 EMA has recently entered bearish territory, typically leading to multi-month losses. The yearly chart for 2025 closed as a “shooting star,” a candlestick formation often indicating a medium-term reversal.
Compounding the challenges for bulls, Bitcoin has diverged from traditional markets since October, declining while equities and other risk assets have remained stable. Crown notes that this pattern is characteristic of late-cycle risk-off behavior, where traders tend to sell more speculative assets first.
Beyond the technical indicators, Crown points out the speculative washout that occurred following October”s crash, which wiped out numerous leveraged altcoin positions and left traders hesitant to re-enter the market at elevated levels. While Crown does not anticipate an extreme bearish cycle, he suggests that Bitcoin could potentially decline to the mid-$50,000 to low-$60,000 range before finding stability. He views this potential drop as an opportunity for long-term accumulation rather than a definitive end to the broader crypto cycle.
