The Bitcoin (BTC) mining landscape is poised for a shift, with an increase in mining difficulty anticipated during the next adjustment on December 11. This change is significant as the hashprice, a crucial indicator of miner profitability per unit of computing power, is currently experiencing record low levels.
The forthcoming mining difficulty adjustment, expected to occur at block 927,360 around 12:09:34 AM UTC, will see the difficulty level rise from 149.30 trillion to 149.80 trillion, as reported by CoinWarz. This follows a recent adjustment on Thursday, which saw a decrease from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion, resulting in an average block time of approximately 9.97 minutes, just below the target of ten minutes.
Despite this recent decrease in mining difficulty, the hashprice is currently hovering around $38.3 petahashes per second (PH/s) daily, as noted by the Hashrate Index. This figure is an improvement from the record low of below $35 PH/s reached on November 21. For miners, a hashprice of $40 PH/s is considered the break-even point, raising concerns about operational viability as profitability remains under pressure.
The challenges facing the mining industry are escalating. Regulatory restrictions, surging energy costs, and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and China, pose significant risks to equipment supply chains. The scrutiny of mining hardware manufacturer Bitmain by the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has heightened these concerns. The investigation aims to ascertain whether Bitmain”s machines could be utilized for espionage purposes.
In 2024, prominent figures such as US Senator Elizabeth Warren have voiced apprehensions regarding the potential misuse of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for spying on sensitive military sites. As the leading manufacturer of ASICs for proof-of-work cryptocurrencies, Bitmain holds a dominant position in the market, commanding an estimated 80% share according to the University of Cambridge.
The implications of potential restrictions, tariffs, or sanctions against Bitmain by US officials could trigger significant supply chain disruptions within the mining sector, which heavily relies on the company for its hardware needs. As the industry navigates these turbulent waters, the upcoming difficulty adjustment will undoubtedly add another layer of complexity for miners struggling to maintain profitability.
