Bitcoin may have transitioned into a bear market approximately two months ago, as indicated by insights from CryptoQuant“s head of research, Julio Moreno. Moreno highlighted a series of technical and on-chain indicators that turned bearish in early November, with no signs of recovery since then.
According to CryptoQuant, the key signal confirming this broader trend shift was Bitcoin“s decline below its one-year moving average. This technical marker is often utilized to differentiate between sustained uptrends and downtrends in the market. “For me, the last confirmation is the price going below its one-year moving average,” Moreno stated, emphasizing that such a movement typically signifies a shift into bearish conditions.
Bitcoin experienced a significant price journey after starting 2025 near $93,000, peaking at around $126,080 in October before reversing and closing the year below its initial price level, based on data from CoinGecko. As of Friday, Bitcoin”s trading price was near $88,500.
If the current market phase is indeed a bear market, it contradicts the prevalent expectation that 2026 would be a year of strong growth for Bitcoin. Moreno suggested that the market might still be in the process of discovering a bottom, estimating that Bitcoin”s bear market low could range between $56,000 and $60,000 over the next year. He noted that historically, Bitcoin prices tend to gravitate back toward the realized price level during extended downturns after experiencing sharp increases in bull markets.
A potential decline to this estimated range would represent a drawdown of about 55% from Bitcoin”s all-time high. Although this figure is substantial, Moreno considers it relatively mild compared to historical standards, where previous bear markets have seen losses ranging from 70% to 80%. These earlier downturns often coincided with widespread failures within the crypto industry.
However, this cycle appears structurally different. Moreno pointed out the lack of significant systemic collapses thus far, contrasting it with 2022 when the failures of entities like Terra, Celsius, and FTX instigated widespread panic and forced selling. He also highlighted the increasing involvement of institutional participants, including ETFs and long-term investors, who tend to maintain their positions during downturns, potentially providing stability to the market.
Moreno remarked, “In previous bear markets, the demand was basically, you know contracting. I would say that structurally, we now have more like institutional or ETFs that don”t sell, and also there”s some buying there.” This shift in market dynamics, combined with a more established infrastructure and a broader base of participants, could help mitigate downside risks even amid continuing bearish conditions.
