In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, onchain analyst James Check discussed the evolving landscape of Bitcoin as it approaches 2026. While the price of Bitcoin may appear stable, Check suggests that the underlying market conditions have transformed considerably, reflecting a shift in investor behavior and market dynamics.
Check revisited a pivotal question posed earlier this year regarding whether the market is in a bull or bear phase. He noted that although Bitcoin is trading at similar price levels, factors such as leverage, the cost basis of investors, and sell-side behavior have changed significantly. These shifts are crucial for understanding current market sentiments.
One of the critical insights from Check is that a significant portion of the capital invested in Bitcoin was acquired at higher prices. This has resulted in many investors being underwater, fostering a more cautious outlook among holders. Contrary to the prevailing myth that long-term holders refrain from selling, Check pointed out that onchain data reveals a substantial influx of coins back into the market from holders of varying durations, contributing to recent price movements.
Furthermore, Check challenged the narrative that exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate figures such as Michael Saylor, or corporate treasuries dominate the Bitcoin space. While these entities play a role, they constitute only a fraction of the overall market activity. The primary takeaway from his analysis is the growing size and liquidity of Bitcoin, which now has the capacity to absorb large inflows without experiencing the volatility characteristic of earlier market cycles.
Looking forward, Check provided his framework for 2026, calling for a balanced perspective that avoids both extreme optimism and pessimism. His discussion also encompassed themes like sovereign adoption, portfolio construction, and long-term risks that often go unnoticed by investors.
For those interested in a deeper dive into Check”s analysis, the full interview is accessible on Cointelegraph”s YouTube channel, offering valuable insights and data to inform investor strategies.
