Bitcoin“s recent price surge is being significantly influenced by traders in the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, the U.S. and European markets have been pulling prices down, creating a notable divergence in trading performance across different regions.
The Asia-Pacific session has provided approximately 2% in cumulative returns for Bitcoin, while the U.S. and European trading hours have seen declines of about -3% and -4% respectively. This persistent trend indicates that while Asian markets support price increases, Western markets tend to reverse these gains, keeping Bitcoin from experiencing deeper declines.
Interestingly, this price behavior has occurred during a time of low leverage in the market, alongside a rise in institutional ownership. Corporate holdings of Bitcoin have soared past one million BTC, which has empowered long-term holders to wield greater influence over market dynamics.
Examining the leverage situation, it appears that while Bitcoin“s Open Interest in USD has reached new highs, the interest measured in BTC has not approached the peaks seen in 2022, which were around 500,000 BTC. This suggests that while the market”s dollar value has increased, traders are not engaging in leverage to the same extent as in previous cycles.
A closer look at the Bybit exchange illustrates this trend. Historically, Bitcoin has cooled off whenever Open Interest reached the 60,000–62,000 BTC range, and currently, the positioning is below this threshold, indicating a subdued level of leverage among speculative traders.
Moreover, the rise in corporate treasuries adds stability to the market. The growth in Bitcoin holdings among corporations has been remarkable, escalating from 197,000 BTC at the beginning of 2023 to approximately 1.08 million BTC. This represents an increase of 448%, primarily driven by large publicly traded companies consistently adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets.
As the market continues to evolve, the focus remains on whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward trajectory, particularly as the influence of Asian traders grows amidst the challenges posed by Western markets.
