The recent analysis by crypto expert Benjamin Cowen suggests that Bitcoin may not see a swift recovery as many investors hope. In a video released on Thursday, Cowen stated, “Bitcoin”s likely going to keep bleeding against the stock market,” casting doubt on the anticipated shift from precious metals like gold and silver to cryptocurrencies.
Currently, gold has reached an impressive all-time high of $5,608.33, while silver is trading at $121.64, according to data from Trading Economics. This surge in precious metals has led to speculation that Bitcoin would soon follow suit. However, Cowen believes these expectations might be unfounded, especially in the near term.
On a more positive note, Citi has forecasted that silver could increase to $150 within three months, spurred by rising demand from China and a weakening US dollar, which has recently hit four-year lows. Despite this bullish outlook for silver, Cowen emphasized that a significant movement toward Bitcoin is unlikely to materialize shortly.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is priced at $82,859, reflecting a decline of 7.78% over the past week, and a decrease of 6.12% within the last 30 days, as reported by CoinMarketCap. This downturn aligns with a broader trend of waning sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, evidenced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which currently shows an “extreme fear” score of 16.
Contrastingly, some analysts maintain a more optimistic viewpoint. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, mentioned to Cointelegraph that the market may be approaching a pivotal moment. “We”re right on the cusp of where we”d traditionally expect to see re-risking back into Bitcoin,” he explained.
Hundal noted that historically, Bitcoin price bottoms tend to lag behind the performance of gold by approximately 14 months. He anticipates that a significant rotation could occur around February or March of the following year. “If history repeats, and it is a big if, the gold-Bitcoin dynamic points to a potential BTC bottom forming over the next 40 days,” he added.
Furthermore, he pointed out that gold generally leads during times of macroeconomic stress, with Bitcoin following once investor confidence begins to recover. “If that model isn”t broken, the tape should start to look less fragile by the end of the quarter,” Hundal stated.
Adding to the conversation, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, remarked in a social media post that Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount compared to gold on a relative basis. “These asymmetric setups are very rare,” he noted, hinting that if capital flows shift, Q1 2026 might serve as a critical turning point.
As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, the interplay between traditional assets and digital currencies remains a focal point for investors. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can reclaim its position or if it will continue to struggle against the backdrop of shifting market dynamics.
