The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a notably bearish sentiment, particularly concerning Bitcoin. According to macro economist Henrik Zeberg, the short-term price action of Bitcoin lacks any bullish momentum, and the long-term outlook is showing signs of deterioration.
In a recent post on the social media platform X, Zeberg presented a strongly bearish evaluation of the current market structure. He emphasized that Bitcoin no longer behaves like an asset in a healthy growth phase. Instead, he suggested that Bitcoin is nearing a critical peak, indicating that the ongoing structure poses a significant risk for a sharp downside movement once this peak is established.
Expanding Diagonal Indicates Price Top
Zeberg”s analysis of Bitcoin is grounded in the observation of an expanding diagonal pattern on the monthly candlestick chart. This long-term structure, which has evolved since the inception of Bitcoin, reflects increasing volatility, characterized by the price making higher highs and lower lows within a broadening range. His chart analysis suggests that Bitcoin is in the final stages of this pattern, which is often marked by exhaustion.
Zeberg has identified the current price zone as a potential topping area. Even if Bitcoin continues to rise, he notes that the upward movement is becoming increasingly unstable. He predicts a final surge, possibly reaching the mid-$150,000 range, but warns that this would not signify strength; rather, it would be a reflection of overconfidence typical in late-cycle market behavior.
From Euphoria to Potential Collapse
One of Zeberg”s most provocative predictions concerns the potential downside targets for Bitcoin. He argues that after a euphoric rally and if Bitcoin surpasses $150,000, it may face a dramatic collapse, similar to the crash experienced by the Nasdaq during the dot-com bubble, which saw an 80% decline. Zeberg points out that Bitcoin has historically magnified both upward and downward price movements.
He predicts a scenario where a broader bubble in both AI and cryptocurrency markets unwinds, leading to a potential crash in Bitcoin”s price by approximately 97% or 98% from its eventual peak. This scenario could set a technical minimum target between $3,000 and $4,000, with the possibility of even more severe declines.
While a final rally may appear enticing, Zeberg warns that holding onto Bitcoin during the subsequent downturn could be catastrophic for unprepared investors. He also highlighted technical indicators that support his bearish stance, citing massive bearish divergence on the monthly timeframe. This occurs when price continues to rise while momentum indicators, such as the RSI, do not confirm these highs. Additionally, the monthly MACD indicator is approaching a bearish crossover, further reinforcing the negative outlook.
