Bitcoin has seen a downturn, approaching the $62,000 mark during trading on Tuesday, continuing a broader decline that has impacted the cryptocurrency market as February nears its end. This drop coincides with a significant reduction in the likelihood of a substantial rebound in prediction markets, reflecting a growing skepticism around potential short-term gains.
Recent data revealed that Bitcoin briefly traded above $62,500 before finding some stability near $64,000. Despite this slight recovery, the currency remains in a pronounced short-term downtrend, having fallen from its January highs amid a series of lower peaks and ongoing selling pressure.
The recent movement in Bitcoin prices suggests a lack of structural recovery. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break through key resistance levels, with each upward attempt met by renewed selling. An increase in trading volume during these declines indicates that market participants are using rallies as exit points rather than opportunities for accumulation. This trend has kept Bitcoin firmly below critical technical levels, fostering a cautious atmosphere across the market.
In the realm of derivatives, the loss of momentum is starkly evident. Traders on Polymarket have significantly adjusted their expectations regarding Bitcoin“s performance for February. Contracts predicting that Bitcoin will conclude the month above major thresholds—like $80,000 or $90,000—are now assigned probabilities of 2% or less. Even moderately optimistic projections have been largely deflated as the month winds down.
Conversely, scenarios predicting lower price outcomes have gained traction. Currently, there”s an estimated 23% chance that Bitcoin will trade at or below $60,000 by the end of February, despite the asset hovering slightly above that level. This shift, though not the prevailing forecast, underscores the rapid cooling of sentiment following multiple failed recovery attempts earlier in the month.
This repricing reflects a growing sense of caution rather than outright panic. The broader crypto market exhibits similar risk-averse behavior, with Ethereum and other significant cryptocurrencies also experiencing comparable intraday declines. Stablecoins have remained stable, indicating that capital is moving to the sidelines rather than being reinvested into alternative digital assets. This pattern typically signifies uncertainty rather than a strong conviction in any market direction.
