Bitcoin has experienced a decline, dropping below $95,000 this week after reaching near $98,000. Despite this price pullback, signals of institutional demand are stronger than they have been in months, as U.S. spot ETF inflows have surged beyond statistical norms. On-chain data indicates that sell-side pressure is tightening and accumulation is renewing, hinting that whales may be seizing the opportunity during this period of consolidation.
According to Glassnode, the latest market pulse reveals that Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, with the 14-day RSI cooling from 63.6 to 61.0 but still maintaining a position above neutral territory. The spot trading volume has seen a modest increase, rising from $8.8 billion to $9.3 billion. This has been accompanied by a dramatic shift in the net buy-sell imbalance, which soared from -$4.6 million to $81.2 million, representing an impressive 1,877% increase and indicating a significant reduction in sell-side pressure.
The recent reversal in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows was striking, shifting from $1.3 billion in outflows to $1.7 billion in inflows, pushing activity well beyond historical norms. This extreme reading suggests renewed institutional accumulation, with weekly ETF trading volume climbing from $16.8 billion to $21.8 billion, both metrics now above their historical averages.
BlackRock“s IBIT played a pivotal role in this surge, capturing $1.035 billion during the trading week of January 12–16, accounting for nearly three-quarters of total Bitcoin ETF demand. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, confirmed the trend of institutional accumulation, stating, “Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong.” He noted that U.S. custody wallets typically hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC each and that these wallets have added a total of 577,000 BTC worth $53 billion over the past year, with flows continuing into January despite the price consolidation.
The ETF MVRV ratio has edged up to 1.71, resting just above its upper statistical band, indicating that ETF holders are still comfortably in profit. Analysts at Glassnode have pointed out that this elevated profitability introduces a mild risk of near-term profit-taking; however, overall sentiment remains constructive as institutions continue to build their positions.
In the derivatives markets, mixed signals are emerging as futures open interest rose from $31.0 billion to $31.5 billion. Glassnode analysts describe this as a “cautious” rebuilding of speculative engagement. Funding rates have dramatically decreased by 60.6%, from $1.5 million to $0.6 million daily, reflecting sharply reduced long-side urgency and a more balanced market positioning after recent exuberance.
On-chain activity has shown signs of stabilization with cautious improvement as fundamental blockchain metrics indicate a tentative recovery. Active addresses have increased by 3.8% to 656,294, suggesting improved network engagement without speculative excess. Additionally, the entity-adjusted transfer volume rose by 3.9% to $8.6 billion, maintaining balanced on-chain activity.
This uptick in Bitcoin fee volume has climbed by 13.2% to $241,100, surpassing the lower statistical band. The short-term-to-long-term holder supply ratio has also increased from 16.7% to 17.0%, indicating growing trading activity alongside potentially heightened volatility. Furthermore, realized capital changes improved from -0.3% to -0.1%, showcasing stabilizing capital flows and easing sell-side pressure.
In December, Ethereum ETFs also demonstrated notable strength, with Fidelity”s FETH attracting $59.25 million and Grayscale”s Ethereum Mini Trust adding $39.21 million, placing them among the top 10 U.S. ETPs by net inflows. January has seen even further acceleration, with spot Ethereum ETFs capturing $479 million during the January 12–16 week, led by BlackRock“s ETHA at $219 million.
