Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant shift, with its Coinbase Premium moving from a prolonged negative state to positive territory. This change comes as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have garnered over $1 billion in net inflows within just three days. Yet, caution is warranted as analysts caution that this rally may simply be a temporary relief rather than a solid bullish trend.
The Coinbase Premium chart indicates a notable transition. From early February 2026, the premium rate dropped sharply into the red, reaching lows around -0.3%, a clear sign of intense selling pressure from large U.S. investors on Coinbase. This trend coincided with Bitcoin”s price hitting a low of $66,000 around mid-February. However, by late February, the premium rebounded into positive territory, fluctuating but remaining above zero. The corresponding increase in Bitcoin”s price has also been evident, rising towards $95,000 by February 27, signaling a return of buyers to the market.
Despite this recovery, the market remains fragile. Analysts emphasize the need for sustained positive indicators to validate this shift. If the premium reverts to negative, it could suggest that sellers are still active in the market.
In parallel, Bitcoin ETFs have seen impressive net inflows, totaling over $1 billion from February 24 to February 26. Inflows were recorded at $257.7 million on the 24th, $506.6 million on the 25th, and $254.4 million on the 26th, reflecting strong demand from U.S. investors and correlating with the recent positive shift in the Coinbase Premium.
Major financial institutions are also making significant moves into the Bitcoin space. Citi is preparing to offer Bitcoin custody and wallet services, integrating Bitcoin into traditional finance this year. Morgan Stanley has filed for its own Bitcoin Trust/ETF, marking a significant development for major banks venturing into cryptocurrency. Additionally, JP Morgan is exploring institutional trading of Bitcoin, with CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledging the legitimacy of Bitcoin with his remark, “Bitcoin is real.”
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs has reportedly acquired $1.1 billion in Bitcoin, and their CEO has personally invested in the cryptocurrency. Other banks like Standard Chartered and UBS have initiated Bitcoin trading services for select clients, while Denmark”s Danske Bank has introduced crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs).
Despite these positive developments, PelinayPA, a leading analyst at CryptoQuant, warns that the current rally may only be a temporary relief bounce rather than an indication of a robust upward trend. The Fund Flow Ratio, which tracks the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges like Binance, remains low at 0.012, suggesting limited activity. A significant spike in this ratio typically occurs during major price declines, indicating that the current market dynamics may be more driven by derivatives and liquidations rather than genuine buying pressure.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery with a positive Coinbase Premium and substantial ETF inflows, the market must maintain consistent demand to avoid potential pullbacks. As institutional interest grows, the future remains uncertain, with the possibility of either a sustained rally or a market correction looming ahead.
