Bitcoin is currently navigating a crucial resistance point at approximately $96,000, a level where buyers from Q2 2025 accumulated substantial holdings. As detailed in the latest analysis by Glassnode, the trend of profit-taking among long-term holders has decreased significantly, dropping from over 100,000 BTC weekly to just 12,800 BTC.
As of now, BTC is trading at $97,797, reflecting a 2.06% increase over the past 24 hours. However, this increase appears to be driven more by a thin futures volume rather than genuine spot market accumulation, indicating a potential instability in the rally.
The resistance region between $93,000 and $110,000 has been identified as a supply cluster, where a significant number of coins were accumulated from April to July 2025. Historical patterns show that rebounds since November 2025 have consistently stalled at the lower edge of this zone, as holders from previous cycles look to exit their positions.
Importantly, the current selling rate among long-term holders has moderated. While they remain net sellers, the intensity of their selling has considerably reduced. With Bitcoin”s all-time high of $126,272 reached in October 2025, many buyers from Q2 2025 find themselves at or near breakeven, raising concerns about future price movements.
Another critical level to watch is the $98.3K mark, which represents the average entry price for short-term holders. This level has historically acted as a dividing line between corrective phases and sustainable uptrends. If Bitcoin can maintain trading above this figure, it could indicate that new demand is effectively absorbing the overhead supply. Conversely, failure to hold above this level may trigger additional selling from newer participants unable to withstand losses.
Support is found at the True Market Mean of approximately $81,000, and a dip below this threshold could lead to a capitulation phase similar to what was experienced between April 2022 and April 2023.
Notably, the recent upward movement towards $96,000 has not stemmed from a surge in fresh buying. Instead, it has been influenced by a short squeeze in the derivatives market amidst relatively low futures volume. This environment means that modest changes in positioning can lead to significant price shifts, creating both opportunities and risks.
On the spot market side, trading activity has shown improvement. Exchanges such as Binance have shifted towards a buy-dominant flow, while Coinbase, previously a source of consistent sell-side pressure, has notably slowed its selling activity. However, this does not equate to the aggressive accumulation that typically characterizes strong bullish trends.
Institutional participation remains cautious, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returning to a net positive position, acting as marginal buyers. However, treasury flows from corporations and sovereign entities have stabilized rather than increased, indicating that while the price is being stabilized, it isn”t yet on a solid upward trajectory.
The options market presents a nuanced situation. Implied volatility remains low, suggesting traders are anticipating stability in the near term. Yet, there is a bias toward puts in longer-dated options, indicating that participants are seeking downside protection while maintaining long positions. Dealers have positioned themselves short gamma in the $94,000 to $104,000 range, which means that any decisive price movement could lead to amplified swings rather than a return to average price levels.
As the market heads into the first quarter of the new year, the current setup is constructive yet precarious. The easing of sell pressure and the deferral of volatility risks suggest that even modest inflows could lead to significant price movements. Recent reports indicate that corporate treasuries are acquiring Bitcoin at three times the current mining supply rate, which could serve as a potential catalyst for demand. However, the market must witness actual spot accumulation and sustained ETF inflows to establish a solid recovery, rather than relying solely on short squeezes amidst low liquidity.
Ultimately, the $98.3K short-term holder cost basis remains the key level to monitor. A convincing breach above it could pave the way for a retest of October”s highs. Conversely, repeated failures to maintain above this threshold would bring the $81K True Market Mean back into focus.
