In a significant development for the cryptocurrency market, Binance”s Bitcoin (BTC) reserve cost has plummeted to an unprecedented low of $62,000 for the first time since the approval of spot ETFs. This decline is raising concerns among investors about the future trajectory of BTC prices.
According to analyst Burak Kesmeci from CryptoQuant, the Binance Reserve Realized Price metric, which represents the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held in Binance”s reserves, has reached this new low. This is a stark increase from approximately $42,000 prior to the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024. The approval of these ETFs was expected to usher in substantial institutional investment, which indeed altered the market dynamics significantly.
As BTC”s price revisits the $62,000 threshold, the market is experiencing a bear cycle. However, the current environment is distinctly different due to increased adoption rates and shifting holder behavior. Historical trends indicate that when Bitcoin”s price dips beneath the exchange reserve realized price, it often foreshadows deeper bear markets. Yet, the post-ETF landscape might allow for a higher bottom compared to previous cycles, as $62,000 could represent a strong support level stemming from the new average acquisition cost.
In tandem with this, the Coinbase Premium Index presents a contrasting picture. Currently, this index remains in negative territory, indicating a lack of sufficient demand from U.S. investors, even as BTC attempts a price recovery. Typically, a positive premium occurs when Bitcoin trades at a higher price on Coinbase than on other global exchanges, suggesting robust demand. The prevailing negative premium implies weaker demand and selling pressure, often driven by futures and perpetual contracts rather than authentic buying interest from the spot market.
For a sustainable price increase, the Coinbase Premium Index must shift towards less negative or positive figures, reflecting genuine buying activity from U.S. investors. Without this shift, any upward movement in BTC”s price is likely to be fragile, facing the risk of stalling or reversing.
Looking ahead, CryptoQuant”s insights also highlight critical psychological price points for Bitcoin investors, particularly those involved in ETFs. Presently, BTC trades around $87,000, which closely aligns with the realized price for Bitcoin ETF investors at $86,600. This suggests that the marginal ETF holder is not inclined to sell at a loss, opting instead to remain invested or exit at breakeven.
Since peaking at approximately $72.6 billion in cumulative flows on October 10, 2025, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has witnessed about $6.1 billion in net outflows. If the realized price for BTC bounces from $86,600, it could rejuvenate investor confidence and potentially reverse the trend of outflows. Conversely, maintaining trading below this threshold could trigger further withdrawals from ETFs.
