The CEO of Canary Capital, Steven McClurg, has released a price forecast for Bitcoin and XRP, focusing on the years 2026 and 2027. His analysis suggests a challenging short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, which he anticipates will experience a downturn in 2026.
According to McClurg, 2026 is likely to represent a “bear phase” within Bitcoin”s historical four-year cycle. He predicts that market pressure will persist until mid-year, with a potential price bottom forming between June and August 2026. During this time, macroeconomic factors are expected to continue impacting risk assets negatively. For instance, on February 11, 2026, Bitcoin was trading close to $67,000, despite sentiment indicators signaling “Extreme Fear.”
McClurg aligns this predicted price action with the typical corrections seen after halving events in previous cycles. Following the anticipated market bottom in the summer of 2026, he posits that Bitcoin could begin a recovery in the fourth quarter of that year. Should inflation begin to decelerate and the Federal Reserve adopt a less restrictive monetary policy, the upward momentum could carry into 2027.
On the other hand, the price forecast for XRP in 2026 indicates a potential divergence from Bitcoin”s trajectory. McClurg notes that XRP was trading around $1.90 in February 2026, but he expects that from the second half of the year onwards, its fundamentals will start to play a more significant role in shaping its price movements. He highlighted advancements in the infrastructure of the XRP Ledger and its growing utility in real-world transactions and tokenized assets.
He believes that 2026 may mark the beginning of a phase where utility-focused cryptocurrencies like XRP and Solana are evaluated more independently from Bitcoin”s classic cycle. This perspective takes into account the continued inflation and tight financial conditions throughout 2026. Nevertheless, McClurg maintains that the four-year cycle model remains valid, suggesting that 2027 could see a more substantial recovery in the cryptocurrency market.
Canary Capital has reportedly increased its exposure to XRP, reflecting a belief that assets with established infrastructure could outperform in the upcoming expansion phase predicted for the next cycle.
