In a recent analysis, Arthur Hayes, the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, expresses optimism about a potential rebound in Bitcoin liquidity in 2026, following a challenging year in 2025. Hayes argues that the underperformance of Bitcoin during 2025 should not be interpreted as a failure of crypto narratives but rather as a reflection of tightening dollar liquidity.
Hayes notes that while Bitcoin lagged behind both gold and US technology stocks throughout 2025, it still behaved in line with expectations under constricted financial conditions. This divergence from traditional assets did not discredit Bitcoin”s identity as digital gold or a high-beta proxy for tech stocks, but rather highlighted the misleading nature of these labels during times of liquidity contraction.
He emphasizes that the weak performance of Bitcoin, alongside the rising prices of gold and the Nasdaq 100, sets a favorable stage for 2026, when he anticipates a reversal in market conditions. According to Hayes, the demand for gold is increasingly driven by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail speculation, as central banks emerge as price-insensitive buyers amid growing distrust of US Treasury exposure.
Turning to equities, Hayes explains that both the US and China perceive success in artificial intelligence (AI) as a strategic imperative, which has disrupted normal market dynamics and contributed to the decoupling of the Nasdaq from dollar liquidity indicators in 2025. He reiterates that the primary variable to watch for Bitcoin”s potential resurgence is the expansion of dollar liquidity.
In his outlook for 2026, Hayes outlines a three-pronged approach to US dollar credit creation that he believes will facilitate this liquidity rebound. The first pillar involves an expanding Federal Reserve balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The second focuses on commercial banks increasing lending into strategic sectors, while the third sees lower mortgage rates driven by government support for mortgage-backed securities.
Hayes also highlights his strategy of increasing risk exposure for 2026 by investing in MSTR and Japan”s Metaplanet, viewing these equities as leveraged plays on a potential Bitcoin bull market. He notes that the current valuations of these companies present attractive entry points, especially if Bitcoin recovers above $110,000, which could spark renewed interest in these assets.
Additionally, Hayes continues to accumulate Zcash (ZEC), interpreting the shift in developers at Electric Coin Company (ECC) not as bearish but as an opportunity to buy at discounted prices. His long-term conviction in Zcash remains strong, believing that the network will deliver impactful products in the future.
In conclusion, Hayes” insights suggest that the second half of 2025 could mark the end of quantitative tightening, paving the way for a liquidity-driven recovery in Bitcoin. He prioritizes the dynamics of dollar liquidity over market narratives and believes that if his projections regarding liquidity hold true, Bitcoin and related equities such as MSTR, Metaplanet, and Zcash may experience substantial gains.
