In a recent blog entry, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shared a bold prediction regarding Bitcoin (BTC) amidst a turbulent market. Following a significant drop that saw Bitcoin dip below $90,000, Hayes asserts that the cryptocurrency could rebound to $200,000 by the end of the year. This forecast hinges on the expectation that adjustments in U.S. dollar liquidity will stabilize and subsequently drive prices up.
Hayes notes that before reaching the anticipated peak, Bitcoin might experience further declines, potentially falling to a range between $80,000 and $85,000. He attributes the recent downturn to a contraction in USD liquidity, which he believes has been influenced by reduced investment inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and digital asset trusts (DATs).
He elaborates on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, emphasizing its reliance on anticipated future fiat supply. Citing the upcoming U.S. tariff truce scheduled for April 9, 2025, Hayes posits that this event could play a crucial role in the market”s recovery. Historically, the cryptocurrency market has been sensitive to macroeconomic variables, as evidenced by a previous slump during the U.S.-China trade tensions, which was followed by a 21% rally post-truce.
Despite the current challenges, institutional investment interest remains robust. Hayes highlighted that the deterioration of Bitcoin”s implied dollar liquidity has resulted in a significant price drop from its previous all-time high of $126,000. This decline has not deterred institutional players, who continue to accumulate Bitcoin even amidst widespread panic and uncertainty in the market.
Moreover, it”s worth mentioning that Hayes has recently divested a considerable portion of his cryptocurrency portfolio, selling nearly $5 million worth of assets including ETH, ENA, and AAVE, while shifting his focus to ZEC, which has shown considerable strength in recent months.
Market sentiment remains divided, with some experts echoing Hayes” optimism. Others, like Benjamin Cowen, suggest a more bearish outlook, predicting potential dips to the $60,000 range by 2026 as Bitcoin approaches a bear market phase. Conversely, Ted Pillows offers a more hopeful perspective, indicating that Bitcoin may perform best when the ISM index sits at around 50, noting its current position at 48.7.
As the market continues to grapple with volatility, notable figures such as Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, see the current price drop as a unique buying opportunity. Despite fear gripping many investors, institutional and high-net-worth individuals appear undeterred, continuing to buy the dip.
