The price of Bitcoin has recently dropped below $90,300, now hovering around $89,900 after a significant decline that has led to a 30-day loss of 16%. Market sentiment is divided, with some traders anticipating a rebound while others brace for further declines. Current charts and on-chain analysis suggest a crucial insight: if Bitcoin does not regain a pivotal level soon, the next potential bottom could be established below $80,000.
Recent trends indicate a shift in selling pressure. Previously, dips in Bitcoin were largely influenced by long liquidations, but this dynamic appears to be changing. Data from Binance reveals that long liquidations amount to approximately $558 million, contrasted with $3.56 billion in short liquidations—this ratio highlights a significant flush-out of long-side leverage. As liquidation pressures diminish, declines may increasingly reflect genuine selling sentiment rather than forced liquidations.
This pattern is further corroborated by the increase in exchange reserves. Between November 13 and November 18, the total Bitcoin reserves across exchanges rose from 2,380,595 BTC to 2,396,519 BTC, signifying an inflow of 15,924 BTC, valued at around $1.43 billion based on current prices. This surge indicates a wave of intentional spot selling, potentially driven by panic exits among holders.
To assess potential support levels for Bitcoin prices, it”s essential to analyze the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This metric reveals where holders last purchased their assets, effectively identifying support zones. Currently, the interval between $89,600 and $79,500 shows minimal support, indicating that few holders may be incentivized to defend these price levels.
The implications of losing the $90,300 mark are significant. Should Bitcoin fail to reclaim this threshold, the technical indicators and URPD map expose a vulnerable area that extends towards the low end of $80,000. A trend-based Fibonacci structure aligns with this perspective, as Bitcoin has been oscillating within a wedge formation since October 6. The lower trend line of this wedge is weak, with only two distinct touches, and as the price approaches this line again, a breakdown could target a Fibonacci extension at $79,600, closely aligning with the URPD gap.
Short-term support levels near $82,000 to $84,500 serve as the last defenses before reaching this vulnerable zone. If Bitcoin continues to close below $90,300, these support levels may soon be tested.
While a reversal scenario remains plausible, it hinges on Bitcoin reclaiming several key levels in succession. The first target is $90,300, which would signal a rejection of the current breakdown. Following that, the next resistance lies at $96,800, and ultimately, a move above $100,900 would signify a bullish shift in short-term market sentiment.
